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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlBreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (876–458, n=1334)
Consensus PnL$1.0K$11.0M$4.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #638PM monthly #1PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensus52% (30 of 58 open)70% (79 of 113 open)74% (26 of 35 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic——NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlBreakTheBankndb1
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $1.6M
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.4KNo $1.4M
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $654K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $268KYes $544K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $291KNo $61K
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $39KNo $832
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183KYes $332K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $43KNo $95K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $55KYes $12K
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.5KNo $7.0K
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $157No $4.0K