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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Accomplished-FrameworkBreakTheBankjoseph00677primm
Record (consensus markets)49% (270–286, n=556)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (10–13, n=23)50% (1246–1260, n=2506)
Consensus PnL$4.0K$7.7M$3.3M$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #924PM monthly #1PM monthly #8PM monthly #49
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)71% (42 of 59 open)no open consensus position51% (20 of 39 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won—97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 82% of 60)12% (won 0% of 2)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 212)6% (won 0% of 1)41% (won 99% of 421)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 100% of 205)65% (won 73% of 11)49% (won 99% of 508)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 116)18% (won 67% of 3)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAccomplished-FrameworkBreakTheBankjoseph00677primm
Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $208K—Over $6.8K
Giants vs. Eagles
opposite sides · consensus Eagles
—Giants $199K—Eagles $5.6K
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Eagles
—Giants $68K—Eagles $131
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
—Giants $11K—Eagles $3.4K
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
same side · consensus Cowboys
—Colts $101K—Colts $94
Cowboys vs. Colts
same side · consensus Cowboys
—Colts $45K—Colts $5.7K