Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Giants (65%). 14 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Giants (-2.5)

14 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (45%) · Eagles at 36¢ · $325K held · ended Nov 8

Giants65¢Eagles35¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 45%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$324.8K

Combined PnL

$14.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 35.5¢

-24% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

14 of 31 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants65%

Eagles36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants17 traders

Total Value$147.9K

Total Shares250,731

Combined PnL+$15.5K

Eagles14 traders

Total Value$156.2K

Total Shares336,634

Combined PnL-$843.7

Giants — 55%Eagles — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrGiants 72% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 68% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Giantsavg 52.7¢	$89.1K	$104.9K	+$15.7K	41% 643-935 (1578)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Eaglesavg 46.7¢	$90.1K	$91.6K	+$1.5K	51% 243-229 (472)
TA takeormake	Giantsavg 55¢	$32.1K	$31.8K	-$303.03	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Eaglesavg 45¢	$20.3K	$21.4K	+$1.1K	49% 807-840 (1647)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Eaglesavg 47¢	$21.4K	$18.4K	$-3.0K	50% 8700-8817 (17517)
VE VenusianCTR	Eaglesavg 48¢	$17.1K	$17.0K	-$178.57	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Giantsavg 53¢	$16.1K	$9.9K	-$32.03	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 53¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	-$65.46
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 45¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$33.43
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Giantsavg 54.4¢	$3.7K	$8.4K	-$706.59	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 54.4¢	$5.1K	$5.8K	-$118.16
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 46.8¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$588.43
IC ic4creamCTR	Eaglesavg 45¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$43.37	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
LooksMaxing101	Giantsavg 53.7¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$25	51% 900-866 (1766)
CH ChonkVision	Giantsavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$20.82	55% 243-196 (439)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eaglesavg 46.9¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$420.61	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Eaglesavg 44.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$89.7	49% 507-531 (1038)
HI hi774c	Giantsavg 53¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	-$14.55	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
GA Gaditima	Giantsavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Giantsavg 53.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$7.08	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 53.4¢	$667.38	$656.25	-$11.25
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 45.2¢	$356.51	$374.9	+$18.33
AB abc51001	Giantsavg 53¢	$999.98	$990.55	-$9.43	59% 67-47 (114)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Giantsavg 53.4¢	$1.8K	$893.75	+$1.25	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 53.4¢	$667.38	$656.25	-$11.25
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 45¢	$225	$237.5	+$12.5
nigiri99	Giantsavg 53¢	$525.13	$608.85	+$83.72	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
UB ubetteruuuu	Giantsavg 53¢	$477	$472.5	-$4.5	48% 214-229 (443)
65 6512395314597884	Giantsavg 55.7¢	$334	$372	+$38	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
PI PIPIZIN	Giantsavg 52¢	$301.58	$304.48	+$2.9	51% 464-452 (916)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Giantsavg 53¢	$219.85	$217.78	-$2.07	50% 407-407 (814)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Giantsavg 52¢	$208	$210	+$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Giantsavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 50¢	$100	$105	+$9
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 50¢	$100	$95	-$9

BreakTheBank

Giants

Invested

$89,122.03

Value

$104.9K

PnL

+$15.7K

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

Kch-TempCTR

Eagles

Invested

$90,107.17

Value

$91.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

243-229 (472)

takeormake

Giants

Invested

$32,121.12

Value

$31.8K

PnL

-$303.03

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Eagles

Invested

$20,266.47

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

807-840 (1647)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Eagles

Invested

$21,412.62

Value

$18.4K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

50%

8700-8817 (17517)

VenusianCTR

Eagles

Invested

$17,143.14

Value

$17.0K

PnL

-$178.57

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$16,055.69

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$32.03

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Giants$6,938.4953¢-$65.46

Eagles$2,837.9645¢+$33.43

38791873984189ARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$3,662.23

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$706.59

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Giants$5,111.8954.4¢-$118.16

Eagles$3,204.0146.8¢-$588.43

ic4creamCTR

Eagles

Invested

$4,076.3

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$43.37

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

LooksMaxing101

Giants

Invested

$2,687.37

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

51%

900-866 (1766)

ChonkVision

Giants

Invested

$2,165.73

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$20.82

Record

55%

243-196 (439)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,262.06

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$420.61

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Eagles

Invested

$1,569.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$89.7

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

hi774c

Giants

Invested

$2,909.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.55

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Gaditima

Giants

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

NM-PARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$1,024.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.08

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Giants$667.3853.4¢-$11.25

Eagles$356.5145.2¢+$18.33

abc51001

Giants

Invested

$999.98

Value

$990.55

PnL

-$9.43

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

GC-PARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$1,750

Value

$893.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Giants$667.3853.4¢-$11.25

Eagles$22545¢+$12.5

nigiri99

Giants

Invested

$525.13

Value

$608.85

PnL

+$83.72

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

ubetteruuuu

Giants

Invested

$477

Value

$472.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

6512395314597884

Giants

Invested

$334

Value

$372

PnL

+$38

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

PIPIZIN

Giants

Invested

$301.58

Value

$304.48

PnL

+$2.9

Record

51%

464-452 (916)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Giants

Invested

$219.85

Value

$217.78

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

407-407 (814)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Giants

Invested

$208

Value

$210

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

Giants$10050¢+$9

Eagles$10050¢-$9

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

14 of 31 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 57% · 7

Aligned

ctrGiants 72% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 68% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.