Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (51%). 16 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)

16 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (48%) · Colts at 50¢ · $265K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys51¢Colts49¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 48%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$264.6K

Combined PnL

$7.8K

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

16 of 33 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys51%

Colts50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts16 traders

Total Value$135.7K

Total Shares260,575

Combined PnL+$10.0K

Cowboys17 traders

Total Value$118.6K

Total Shares233,645

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Colts — 48%Cowboys — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Coltsavg 48¢	$90.3K	$100.6K	+$10.4K	41% 643-935 (1578)
TA taylorsversion	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$78.3K	$77.8K	-$443.82	49% 146-149 (295)
TA takeormake	Cowboysavg 52¢	$25.0K	$24.3K	-$721.16	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
VE VenusianCTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$18.2K	$17.6K	-$556.77	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$10.9K	$10.3K	-$560.78	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 49¢	$4.4K	$5.5K	+$1.1K
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$6.5K	$4.9K	$-1.7K
BA bands1CTR	Coltsavg 47¢	$9.0K	$9.3K	+$287.4	49% 435-448 (883)
PU purplegatto	Cowboysavg 52.9¢	$7.4K	$6.1K	$-1.3K	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
VeryLucky888	Cowboysavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$175	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LooksMaxing101CTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$24.6	51% 900-866 (1766)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20.5	48% 214-229 (443)
nigiri99	Cowboysavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$14.69	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
BI biying88888CTR	Coltsavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$179.83	48% 219-239 (458)
AN Anon455	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$112.9	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
RN1	Cowboysavg 40¢	$957.2	$1.2K	+$251.26	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Cowboysavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$128.68	50% 407-407 (814)
AB abc51001CTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$999.99	$989.79	-$10.2	59% 67-47 (114)
FO forecastication4	Cowboysavg 51¢	$722.99	$861.2	+$138.22	50% 1560-1566 (3126)
65 6512395314597884	Cowboysavg 46.9¢	$451.22	$485.99	+$34.77	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Coltsavg 45¢	$357.3	$377.15	+$19.85	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 51.8¢	$309.24	$311.51	+$2.26	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Coltsavg 44¢	$266.17	$287.34	+$21.17	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NM NM-P	Cowboysavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P	Cowboysavg 51¢	$254.99	$252.49	-$2.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Cowboysavg 50¢	$244.57	$227.45	-$17.12	49% 507-531 (1038)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Cowboysavg 52¢	$208	$202	-$6	51% 2075-2021 (4096)

BreakTheBankCTR

Colts

Invested

$90,282.31

Value

$100.6K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

taylorsversion

Cowboys

Invested

$78,267.21

Value

$77.8K

PnL

-$443.82

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

takeormake

Cowboys

Invested

$25,000.04

Value

$24.3K

PnL

-$721.16

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

VenusianCTR

Colts

Invested

$18,187.82

Value

$17.6K

PnL

-$556.77

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$10,910.13

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$560.78

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Colts$4,370.6349¢+$1.1K

Cowboys$6,529.8751.8¢$-1.7K

bands1CTR

Colts

Invested

$9,005.08

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$287.4

Record

49%

435-448 (883)

purplegatto

Cowboys

Invested

$7,377

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

VeryLucky888

Cowboys

Invested

$2,550

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$175

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LooksMaxing101CTR

Colts

Invested

$2,410.48

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.6

Record

51%

900-866 (1766)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Colts

Invested

$2,009

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.5

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

nigiri99

Cowboys

Invested

$1,557.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.69

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

biying88888CTR

Colts

Invested

$1,659.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$179.83

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

Anon455

Cowboys

Invested

$1,580.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$112.9

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

RN1

Cowboys

Invested

$957.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$251.26

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Cowboys

Invested

$1,216.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$128.68

Record

50%

407-407 (814)

abc51001CTR

Colts

Invested

$999.99

Value

$989.79

PnL

-$10.2

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

forecastication4

Cowboys

Invested

$722.99

Value

$861.2

PnL

+$138.22

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

6512395314597884

Cowboys

Invested

$451.22

Value

$485.99

PnL

+$34.77

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Colts

Invested

$357.3

Value

$377.15

PnL

+$19.85

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$309.24

Value

$311.51

PnL

+$2.26

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

SnakeBallCTR

Colts

Invested

$266.17

Value

$287.34

PnL

+$21.17

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NM-P

Cowboys

Invested

$255

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P

Cowboys

Invested

$254.99

Value

$252.49

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Multicoloured-Serf

Cowboys

Invested

$244.57

Value

$227.45

PnL

-$17.12

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Cowboys

Invested

$208

Value

$202

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

16 of 33 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.