Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5

9 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Under (27%) · Under at 55¢ · $512K held · ended Nov 8

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 27%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$511.9K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 33 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$375.8K

Total Shares693,817

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over24 traders

Total Value$126.7K

Total Shares272,308

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Underavg 54¢	$213.4K	$215.4K	+$2.0K	41% 643-935 (1578)
KC Kch-Temp	Underavg 53.7¢	$112.2K	$111.8K	+$1.2K	51% 243-229 (472)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 45¢	$36.9K	$38.9K	+$2.0K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
SI Siddhartha1	Underavg 55¢	$31.9K	$31.6K	-$290.03	49% 64-67 (131)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 45¢	$16.0K	$16.1K	+$177.43	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$15.6K	$15.1K	-$467.55	49% 507-531 (1038)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46¢	$14.4K	$14.2K	-$203.44	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Overavg 45¢	$11.0K	$11.1K	+$122.43	48% 491-536 (1027)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Underavg 55.4¢	$11.0K	$10.6K	+$161.83	51% 1024-996 (2020)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 46¢	$10.0K	$9.7K	-$326.09	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$6.3K	$5.1K	-$110.63	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$161.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$50.75
UB ubetteruuuu	Underavg 56.1¢	$4.8K	$4.4K	-$145.48	48% 214-229 (443)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$101.21	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$4.6K	$3.6K	-$7.41	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$28.78	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$26.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$807.33	$862.74	+$55.41
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$10.32	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$74.99	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$7.52	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 46¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$63.91	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.51	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$64.27	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$22.5	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$1.0K	$980.32	-$58.19	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$733.99	$726.99	-$7	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$550	$545	-$5
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$183.99	$181.99	-$2
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$592.5	$568.75	-$23.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)

BreakTheBank

Under

Invested

$213,448.6

Value

$215.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

Kch-Temp

Under

Invested

$112,157.37

Value

$111.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

243-229 (472)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$36,893.11

Value

$38.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Siddhartha1

Under

Invested

$31,902.76

Value

$31.6K

PnL

-$290.03

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$15,968.85

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$177.43

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$15,562.76

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$467.55

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$14,416.35

Value

$14.2K

PnL

-$203.44

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Over

Invested

$11,019.11

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$122.43

Record

48%

491-536 (1027)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Under

Invested

$11,016.34

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$161.83

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$9,999.98

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$326.09

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,294.54

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$110.63

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Over$3,576.4347.3¢-$161.38

Under$1,621.1652.9¢+$50.75

ubetteruuuu

Under

Invested

$4,848.67

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$145.48

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$3,656.45

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$101.21

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$4,583.61

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$7.41

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,256.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$28.78

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Both legs:

Over$2,449.546¢-$26.63

Under$807.3351¢+$55.41

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$2,288.96

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$10.32

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$2,349.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$74.99

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,983.95

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$7.52

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$1,959.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$63.91

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$1,325.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.51

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,105.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$64.27

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,068.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$1,038.52

Value

$980.32

PnL

-$58.19

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$733.99

Value

$726.99

PnL

-$7

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Both legs:

Invested

$592.5

Value

$568.75

PnL

-$23.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 33 top traders (27%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

79h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrOver 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.