Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Giants, while the market favors Eagles (62%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Giants (-1.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (53%) · Giants at 39¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 8

Giants39¢Eagles61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 38.5¢

-26% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants39%

Eagles62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles7 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares39,154

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Giants8 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares37,827

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Eagles — 47%Giants — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (14 on Giants) disagree here.

whaleGiants 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGiants 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Eaglesavg 45¢	$16.9K	$13.9K	$-3.0K	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Giantsavg 55¢	$13.3K	$11.5K	$-1.8K	41% 643-941 (1584)
PR primm	Eaglesavg 44.3¢	$6.5K	$3.4K	+$536.37	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Eaglesavg 63¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$224.58	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 63¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$28.48
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 47¢	$1.1K	$888.2	-$196.09
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 38.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$0.49	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
BI biying88888CTR	Giantsavg 47¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$387.26	48% 233-252 (485)
VeryLucky888	Eaglesavg 44¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$14.52	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
RN1	Eaglesavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$11.97	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189CTR	Giantsavg 55¢	$966.23	$965.88	-$0.35	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AB abc51001CTR	Giantsavg 56¢	$903.33	$766.22	-$137.11	59% 67-47 (114)
65 6512395314597884	Eaglesavg 56.2¢	$461.33	$505.03	+$43.7	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Giantsavg 55¢	$61.6	$53.2	-$8.4	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 55¢	$76.36	$36.27	-$5.73	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Eaglesavg 60¢	$7.5	$7.69	+$0.19	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giantsavg 37.3¢	$6.76	$6.99	+$0.22	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Eaglesavg 41¢	$2.45	$2.63	+$0.18	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

Limousin

Eagles

Invested

$16,941.94

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

BreakTheBankCTR

Giants

Invested

$13,273.49

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

primm

Eagles

Invested

$6,545.45

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$536.37

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

cm2897ARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$2,280.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$224.58

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Both legs:

Eagles$1,196.3763¢-$28.48

Giants$1,084.2947¢-$196.09

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$2,051.22

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

biying88888CTR

Giants

Invested

$2,247.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$387.26

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

VeryLucky888

Eagles

Invested

$1,546.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.52

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

RN1

Eagles

Invested

$1,460.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.97

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189CTR

Giants

Invested

$966.23

Value

$965.88

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

abc51001CTR

Giants

Invested

$903.33

Value

$766.22

PnL

-$137.11

Record

59%

67-47 (114)

6512395314597884

Eagles

Invested

$461.33

Value

$505.03

PnL

+$43.7

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$61.6

Value

$53.2

PnL

-$8.4

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$76.36

Value

$36.27

PnL

-$5.73

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Eagles

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$6.76

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.22

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Eagles

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (14 on Giants) disagree here.

whaleGiants 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrGiants 69% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.