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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | lava-lava | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (571–700, n=1271) | 43% (392–518, n=910) | 65% (892–472, n=1364) | 47% (13369–14864, n=28233) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $1.3M | $4.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #128 | PM monthly #97 | PM monthly #29 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (13 of 25 open) | 40% (43 of 108 open) | 78% (39 of 50 open) | 58% (107 of 185 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 41% of 880 at avg 39¢, ROI +2% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 48% (won 8% of 421) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 16% (won 38% of 140) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 15% (won 70% of 131) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 21% (won 96% of 188) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | lava-lava | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $182K | Yes $9.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $30K | — | — | Pelicans $125 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $19K | — | — | Pelicans $135 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $323 | — | — | Pelicans $143 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) same side · consensus Pacers | Grizzlies $357 | — | — | Grizzlies $123 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? same side · consensus No | Yes $33 | Yes $354 | — | — |