← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Elias.Thornwell | beachboy4 | CORGII | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 78% (10078–2840, n=12918) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $84 | $5.8M | $4.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #837 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (469 of 583 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) | 63% (29 of 46 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 99% of 3321 at avg 90¢, ROI +2% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 60% of 98) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 96% of 98) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 98% of 168) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 89% (won 100% of 2957) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Elias.Thornwell | beachboy4 | CORGII | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $20 | Yes $4.2K | — | — |