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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Fancyi | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 0% (0–2, n=2) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | -$56K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (20 of 25 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 68 at avg 73¢, ROI +8% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 14% of 7) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 50% of 4) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 70% of 10) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 69% (won 98% of 47) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Fancyi | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5 | — | No $112K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $468 | — | No $34K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.3K | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $6.8K | — | Yes $170K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $97 | — | Yes $75K | — |
| Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $49 | — | Yes $3.0K | — |