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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Folletin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (367–150, n=517) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $77K | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 68% (26 of 38 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 74% (71 of 96 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −10 pts, n=69 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 572 at avg 69¢, ROI +7% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 22% of 69) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 39% of 49) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 70% of 100) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 62% (won 90% of 354) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Folletin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $79 | — | Yes $169K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $583 | — | No $102K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $21 | — | No $40K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $26K | — | Yes $1.1K |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $754 | — | Yes $38K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $410 | — | Yes $37K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $91 | — | Yes $14K |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $140 | — | Yes $4.6K |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $383 | — | Yes $943 |