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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| George.Smiley | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 75% (144–49, n=193) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $57K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #508 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (7 of 8 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | no open consensus position | 71% (15 of 21 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 89% of 158 at avg 73¢, ROI +14% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 45% of 20) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 64% of 14) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 93% of 15) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 69% (won 99% of 109) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | George.Smiley | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $9.4K | No $184K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $923 | No $35K | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7.3K | Yes $272K | — | — |