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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HerrieDavis | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 27% (925–2522, n=3447) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (986–968, n=1954) |
| Consensus PnL | -$755K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #673 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (149 of 197 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 2295 at avg 53¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 30% (won 30% of 698) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 93% of 246) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 98% of 385) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 42% (won 100% of 966) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HerrieDavis | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $71 | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.7K | — | Yes $68 | — |