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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (3505–2988, n=6493) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.0M | $10.6M | $5.8M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 77% (24 of 31 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 62% (16 of 26 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 2722 at avg 58¢, ROI +41% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 95% of 37) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 30% (won 100% of 819) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 48% (won 100% of 1319) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 547) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | Eagles $40K | Commanders $161K | — | Commanders $433 |
| Spread: Commanders (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Eagles | Eagles $50K | — | — | Commanders $1.4K |
| Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 42.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $8.3K | — | — | Over $259 |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $32K | — | Commanders $125 |
| Spread: Commanders (-14.5) same side · consensus Eagles | Eagles $26K | — | — | Eagles $4 |
| Spread: Commanders (-7.5) same side · consensus Eagles | Eagles $4.7K | — | — | Eagles $5.8K |
| Spread: Warriors (-5.5) same side · consensus Clippers | Clippers $8 | — | — | Clippers $14 |