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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | monkeymashingkeyboard | SineNooneEI | smoltrader | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 97% (169–6, n=175) | 99% (245–2, n=247) | 92% (471–42, n=513) | no settled market |
| Consensus PnL | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.0M | — |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #10 | PM monthly #110 | was PM monthly #368 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (55 of 82 open) | 80% (8 of 10 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 100% (15 of 15 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet | ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 149 at avg 54¢, ROI +46% | 100% of 240 at avg 51¢, ROI +49% | 92% of 511 at avg 55¢, ROI +33% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 100% of 3) | 3% (won 100% of 6) | 5% (won 83% of 23) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 43% (won 100% of 64) | 31% (won 100% of 74) | 36% (won 88% of 182) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 42% (won 100% of 62) | 66% (won 100% of 158) | 44% (won 93% of 224) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 13% (won 100% of 20) | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 16% (won 99% of 82) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | monkeymashingkeyboard | SineNooneEI | smoltrader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $41K | Over $652 | — | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Pacers $15K | Mavericks $3.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Bills | Vikings $4.1K | Bills $6.1K | — | — |
| Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $64 | Under $538 | — | — |
| Spread: Rockets (-3.5) same side · consensus Rockets | Rockets $11K | Rockets $3.7K | — | — |