Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5

5 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (23%) · Over at 54¢ · $186K held · ends Nov 10

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 23%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$185.6K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 53.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 22 top traders (23%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$123.0K

Total Shares229,860

Combined PnL+$9.4K

Under17 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares65,928

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Over — 23%Under — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Overavg 49.7¢	$64.5K	$69.4K	+$4.9K	1% 1-82 (83)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 47.8¢	$34.0K	$38.0K	+$4.0K	3% 4-155 (159)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$22.1K	$21.7K	-$465.91	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$16.1K	$14.9K	$-1.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$6.0K	$6.7K	+$692.34
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Overavg 53¢	$11.5K	$11.6K	+$108.67	0% 0-80 (80)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 47¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$85.11	16% 18-93 (111)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 50¢	$7.9K	$7.5K	-$404.64	2% 2-119 (121)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 53.9¢	$6.9K	$4.8K	-$305.3	43% 26-35 (61)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$22.58
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$282.72
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	-$366.04	52% 59-54 (113)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$299.66	4% 9-248 (257)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$223.84	49% 377-392 (769)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 48¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$341.79	3% 5-177 (182)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$21.27	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$113.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$92.48
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$7.58	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$97.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$89.92
SP SPLPBCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$83.09	—
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$719.33	$703.7	-$15.62	46% 38-45 (83)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52¢	$553.4	$569.36	+$15.96	30% 104-243 (347)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$280.06	$267.24	-$12.81	22% 46-161 (207)
GM gmpm2CTR	Underavg 51¢	$230.45	$210.11	-$20.33	— 2-2 (4)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	100% 27-0 (27)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$107	+$7
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$93	-$7
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 47¢	$188	$186	-$2	5% 21-412 (433)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$182.56	$182.28	-$0.28	69% 27-12 (39)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 49¢	$139.37	$132.26	-$7.11	1% 1-190 (191)
RL RLWGCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$119.45	$109.27	-$10.17	22% 26-94 (120)
tradecraftCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$108.63	$102.89	-$5.74	19% 40-175 (215)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$47.35	$35.11	-$1.69	48% 171-185 (356)

Kch-Temp

Over

Invested

$64,484.49

Value

$69.4K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

1-82 (83)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$34,003.62

Value

$38.0K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

4-155 (159)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$22,119.32

Value

$21.7K

PnL

-$465.91

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Under$16,078.3250.1¢$-1.2K

Over$6,042.9248¢+$692.34

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Over

Invested

$11,519.14

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$108.67

Record

0-80 (80)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$7,999.98

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$85.11

Record

16%

18-93 (111)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$7,931.01

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$404.64

Record

2-119 (121)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,878.51

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$305.3

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

Both legs:

Over$3,097.7653.9¢-$22.58

Under$1,904.7550¢-$282.72

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,080.84

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$366.04

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$4,280.88

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$299.66

Record

9-248 (257)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$3,669.37

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$223.84

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$2,982.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$341.79

Record

5-177 (182)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,748.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$21.27

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Under$1,624.9950¢-$113.75

Over$1,123.2249.4¢+$92.48

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,558.8

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$7.58

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Under$1,492.4949.7¢-$97.5

Over$1,066.3149.3¢+$89.92

SPLPBCTR

Under

Invested

$1,186.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$83.09

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$719.33

Value

$703.7

PnL

-$15.62

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$553.4

Value

$569.36

PnL

+$15.96

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$280.06

Value

$267.24

PnL

-$12.81

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

gmpm2CTR

Under

Invested

$230.45

Value

$210.11

PnL

-$20.33

Record

—

2-2 (4)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

27-0 (27)

Both legs:

Over$10050¢+$7

Under$10050¢-$7

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$188

Value

$186

PnL

-$2

Record

21-412 (433)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$182.56

Value

$182.28

PnL

-$0.28

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$139.37

Value

$132.26

PnL

-$7.11

Record

1-190 (191)

RLWGCTR

Under

Invested

$119.45

Value

$109.27

PnL

-$10.17

Record

22%

26-94 (120)

tradecraftCTR

Under

Invested

$108.63

Value

$102.89

PnL

-$5.74

Record

19%

40-175 (215)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.35

Value

$35.11

PnL

-$1.69

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 22 top traders (23%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

95h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.