Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Mavericks (53%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (71%) · Pacers at 48¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
17
Pacers 71%
3 arb excluded
$53.5K
-$23.35
50.5¢ → 47.5¢
-6% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Pacersavg 51¢ | $12.5K | $12.1K | -$375 | — |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Pacersavg 50.2¢ | $11.8K | $11.5K | -$392.31 | — |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Mavericksavg 49¢ | $10.0K | $10.5K | +$509.03 | — |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Mavericksavg 51.1¢ | $6.4K | $6.6K | +$179.88 | — |
 nehcnehc | Mavericksavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$241.18 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pacersavg 50¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$108.15 | — |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 50.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$52.64 | — |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 50.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$49.49 | |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 52¢ | $328.12 | $324.97 | -$3.15 | |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Pacersavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $970 | -$30 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pacersavg 51¢ | $892.49 | $359.99 | -$22.5 | — |
GC GC-PCTR | Pacersavg 49.3¢ | $258.68 | $254.3 | -$4.38 | — |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Mavericksavg 50¢ | $1.6K | $200 | +$0 | — |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 50¢ | $100 | $103 | +$3 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 50¢ | $100 | $97 | -$3 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Pacersavg 49.6¢ | $199.13 | $190.87 | -$8.35 | — |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Pacersavg 48¢ | $192 | $190 | -$2 | — |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 50¢ | $183.96 | $183.22 | -$0.74 | — |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 50¢ | $125 | $121.25 | -$3.75 | |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 49¢ | $58.96 | $61.97 | +$3.01 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Pacersavg 51.6¢ | $167.99 | $158.39 | -$9.59 | — |
OM omnibus-076daa | Mavericksavg 51¢ | $148.75 | $150.26 | +$1.51 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Pacersavg 49¢ | $129.51 | $128.19 | -$1.32 | — |
LI Limousin<$100 | Mavericksavg 50¢ | $58.97 | $59.54 | +$0.58 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR | Pacersavg 51.8¢ | $119 | $24.4 | -$1.39 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 50.2¢ | $10.05 | $9.5 | -$0.55 | — |
Invested
$12,499.95
Value
$12.1K
PnL
-$375
Record
—
Invested
$11,849.44
Value
$11.5K
PnL
-$392.31
Record
—
Invested
$9,976.57
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$509.03
Record
—
Invested
$6,407.81
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$179.88
Record
—
nehcnehcInvested
$4,726.99
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$241.18
Record
—
Invested
$3,577.9
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$108.15
Record
—
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$1,617.78
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$52.64
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$1,000
Value
$970
PnL
-$30
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$892.49
Value
$359.99
PnL
-$22.5
Record
—
Invested
$258.68
Value
$254.3
PnL
-$4.38
Record
—
Invested
$1,600
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$199.13
Value
$190.87
PnL
-$8.35
Record
—
Invested
$192
Value
$190
PnL
-$2
Record
—
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$183.96
Value
$183.22
PnL
-$0.74
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$167.99
Value
$158.39
PnL
-$9.59
Record
—
Invested
$148.75
Value
$150.26
PnL
+$1.51
Record
—
Invested
$129.51
Value
$128.19
PnL
-$1.32
Record
—
Invested
$58.97
Value
$59.54
PnL
+$0.58
Record
—
Invested
$119
Value
$24.4
PnL
-$1.39
Record
—
Invested
$10.05
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.55
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
TAIWANNUMBERONE
CTRPacers — $12.1K
Multicoloured-Serf
CTRPacers — $11.5K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Mavericks — $10.5K
monkeymashingkeyboard
Mavericks — $6.6K
nehcnehc
Mavericks — $5.0K
HomeRunHazard
CTRPacers — $3.5K
nigiri99
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pltrkr111
CTRPacers — $970
VeryLucky888
CTRPacers — $359.99
GC-P
CTRPacers — $254.3