Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 15 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5

15 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 5.5¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 10

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$41.1K

Combined PnL

$-93.7K

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 5.5¢

-89% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 36 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over15 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares236,382

Combined PnL$-99.7K

Under21 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares27,156

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 10

Aligned

ctrOver 52% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 36

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Overavg 48¢	$83.1K	$11.3K	$-71.8K	42% 470-656 (1126)
GL glennyorkshire	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$9.3K	+$4.0K	54% 20-17 (37)
RN1	Underavg 86.1¢	$4.5K	$3.6K	-$980.29	51% 289-274 (563)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53¢	$1.7K	$2.9K	+$1.2K	48% 436-463 (899)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 53¢	$21.8K	$2.7K	$-19.1K	14% 40-241 (281)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 66.9¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$350.76	42% 132-179 (311)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 89.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$54.97	59% 1209-854 (2063)
AN Anon455	Underavg 67.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$271.4	47% 87-97 (184)
GC GC-P	Underavg 53.4¢	$786.67	$1.0K	+$215.98	7% 18-249 (267)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 51¢	$510	$930	+$420	43% 35-46 (81)
NM NM-P	Underavg 52.3¢	$689.93	$848.69	+$158.75	55% 1709-1396 (3105)
dips.	Underavg 87¢	$774.68	$832.15	+$57.47	44% 125-158 (283)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 51¢	$296.9	$544.32	+$247.42	47% 263-291 (554)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.4K	$490	$-2.9K	5% 5-90 (95)
CM cm2897	Underavg 94¢	$539.05	$478.82	-$60.23	47% 428-476 (904)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$202	$368	+$166	5% 29-539 (568)
0xheavy888	Underavg 53.6¢	$203.11	$348.68	+$145.57	69% 34-15 (49)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$342.87	$-2.1K	10% 18-162 (180)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 71.2¢	$212.4	$275.04	+$62.64	53% 218-191 (409)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 53¢	$1.8K	$237.93	$-1.6K	57% 104-80 (184)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Underavg 52¢	$130.49	$232.12	+$101.63	1% 2-296 (298)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Underavg 55¢	$108.72	$184.82	+$76.1	0% 1-225 (226)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$675.76	$95.03	-$580.73	40% 29-43 (72)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 44¢	$526.96	$84.8	-$442.16	27% 128-352 (480)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$539.52	$74.96	-$464.56	28% 122-309 (431)

BreakTheBankCTR

Over

Invested

$83,079.54

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-71.8K

Record

42%

470-656 (1126)

glennyorkshire

Under

Invested

$5,200

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

54%

20-17 (37)

RN1

Under

Invested

$4,528.85

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$980.29

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,721.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$21,817.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-19.1K

Record

14%

40-241 (281)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,004

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$350.76

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$1,184.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$54.97

Record

59%

1209-854 (2063)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,421.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$271.4

Record

47%

87-97 (184)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$786.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$215.98

Record

18-249 (267)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$510

Value

$930

PnL

+$420

Record

43%

35-46 (81)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$689.93

Value

$848.69

PnL

+$158.75

Record

55%

1709-1396 (3105)

dips.

Under

Invested

$774.68

Value

$832.15

PnL

+$57.47

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$296.9

Value

$544.32

PnL

+$247.42

Record

47%

263-291 (554)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Over

Invested

$3,430

Value

$490

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

5-90 (95)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$539.05

Value

$478.82

PnL

-$60.23

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$202

Value

$368

PnL

+$166

Record

29-539 (568)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$203.11

Value

$348.68

PnL

+$145.57

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,396.42

Value

$342.87

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$212.4

Value

$275.04

PnL

+$62.64

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,801.47

Value

$237.93

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Under

Invested

$130.49

Value

$232.12

PnL

+$101.63

Record

2-296 (298)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Under

Invested

$108.72

Value

$184.82

PnL

+$76.1

Record

1-225 (226)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$675.76

Value

$95.03

PnL

-$580.73

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$526.96

Value

$84.8

PnL

-$442.16

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$539.52

Value

$74.96

PnL

-$464.56

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

15 of 36 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 10

Aligned

ctrOver 52% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 36

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.