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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ImbleciarBreakTheBankRN1primm
Record (consensus markets)76% (19–6, n=25)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)50% (941–941, n=1882)
Consensus PnL$57K$10.6M$13.4M$3.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #803 + pinnedPM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus25% (1 of 4 open)73% (73 of 100 open)63% (20 of 32 open)47% (7 of 15 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won80% of 25 at avg 70¢, ROI +9%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 33% of 3)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢12% (won 33% of 3)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢24% (won 83% of 6)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up52% (won 100% of 13)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketImbleciarBreakTheBankRN1primm
Chiefs vs. Broncos
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
—Chiefs $465K—Broncos $6.8K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $22KNo $252K——
Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus Falcons
——Falcons $2.7KBuccaneers $3.0K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $51KMagic $228—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $9.9KYes $28K——
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $13KMagic $161—