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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Melody626 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 62% (666–405, n=1071) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $986K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #567 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (31 of 39 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) | 63% (29 of 46 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 938 at avg 62¢, ROI +12% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 17% of 78) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 13% (won 58% of 119) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 39% (won 83% of 367) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 97% of 374) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Melody626 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.1K | No $102K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $32K | No $35K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.2K | Yes $28K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $9.3K | No $590 | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $5.6K | Yes $4.1K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $35K | Yes $169K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $28K | Yes $38K | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $51K | Magic $228 | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $13K | Magic $161 | — |