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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Melody626 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 62% (666–405, n=1071) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $983K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #567 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (26 of 33 open) | 67% (8 of 12 open) | 85% (53 of 62 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 938 at avg 62¢, ROI +12% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 8% (won 17% of 78) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 13% (won 58% of 119) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 39% (won 83% of 367) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 97% of 374) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Melody626 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $14K | — | No $112K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $32K | — | No $34K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.2K | — | Yes $30K | — |
| Eagles vs. Commanders same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $27K | Commanders $1.1M | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $35K | — | Yes $170K | — |