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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Optimus- | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (997–640, n=1637) | 47% (13860–15341, n=29201) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | $94K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 57% (37 of 65 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Soccer −4 pts, n=48 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 58% of 1605 at avg 53¢, ROI +6% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 18% of 473) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 43% of 242) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 20% (won 65% of 314) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 93% of 576) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Optimus- | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $126 | — | Yes $65 | — |