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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Rin2x | RN1 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 90% (2129–243, n=2372) | 47% (13860–15343, n=29203) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 52% (273–252, n=525) |
| Consensus PnL | $35K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #806 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 95% (21 of 22 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −4 pts, n=67 | — | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 |
| Settled positions, side won | 92% of 2137 at avg 92¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 16% of 31) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 20% (won 12% of 109) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 36% of 33) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 21% (won 46% of 114) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 3% (won 49% of 55) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 33% (won 60% of 176) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 94% (won 96% of 2018) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 26% (won 82% of 137) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Rin2x | RN1 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $119 | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $18 | — | Yes $274K | — |