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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
SlenderManCORGIIRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)77% (228–68, n=296)62% (393–245, n=638)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$510K$4.5M$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #450PM monthly #68PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus100% (18 of 18 open)25% (1 of 4 open)53% (57 of 107 open)73% (73 of 100 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicGeopolitics ±0 pts, n=210———
Settled positions, side won72% of 326 at avg 72¢, ROI −3%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢18% (won 10% of 60)9% (won 92% of 36)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢8% (won 50% of 26)56% (won 99% of 223)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢6% (won 50% of 20)33% (won 100% of 133)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up67% (won 94% of 220)2% (won 100% of 7)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketSlenderManCORGIIRN1BreakTheBank
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
——Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
——Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $51K——No $40K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
——Magic $228Magic $51K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
——Magic $161Magic $13K