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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StudyPrediction | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4355–3141, n=7496) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $49K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #1000 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (16 of 22 open) | 85% (56 of 66 open) | 79% (11 of 14 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=82 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 6578 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 13% of 1876) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 22% (won 47% of 1469) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 65% of 1106) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 93% of 2127) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StudyPrediction | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $82K | Commanders $65 | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $32K | Commanders $125 | — |