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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StudyPrediction | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 58% (4357–3145, n=7502) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $49K | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #1000 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (19 of 31 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 79% (53 of 67 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=82 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 6575 at avg 51¢, ROI +3% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 13% of 1875) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 22% (won 47% of 1468) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 65% of 1105) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 93% of 2127) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StudyPrediction | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $189 | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $28 | — | No $40K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $11 | — | Yes $85K |