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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| TBill1 | sainttroplay | CORGII | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (110–138, n=248) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $82K | $4.4M | $4.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #978 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 62% (28 of 45 open) | no open consensus position | 25% (1 of 4 open) | 73% (72 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Soccer −3 pts, n=52 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 61% of 193 at avg 52¢, ROI −6% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 36% (won 12% of 69) | 0% | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 63% of 16) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 16% (won 81% of 31) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 97% of 77) | 0% | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | TBill1 | sainttroplay | CORGII | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19K | — | — | Yes $77K |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $155 | — | — | No $590 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $58 | — | — | Yes $51K |