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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
TheReturnOfDarthMaulRN100gringo00BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)65% (290–154, n=444)47% (13860–15341, n=29201)75% (6–2, n=8)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$1.6M$13.4M$3.5M$10.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #140PM monthly #24 + pinnedwas PM monthly #19PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus85% (46 of 54 open)67% (4 of 6 open)no open consensus position88% (145 of 164 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicCrypto −4 pts, n=86———
Settled positions, side won62% of 424 at avg 61¢, ROI +7%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢29% (won 9% of 123)10% (won 57% of 2537)0%10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 49% of 47)22% (won 94% of 5518)0%36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢10% (won 83% of 41)36% (won 99% of 8928)100% (won 86% of 7)35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up50% (won 91% of 213)32% (won 100% of 7821)0%19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketTheReturnOfDarthMaulRN100gringo00BreakTheBank
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $76K——No $202K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $1.9K——No $253K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $57K——Yes $85K