Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
donthackmebeachboy4BreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)63% (6398–3767, n=10165)68% (43–20, n=63)45% (542–652, n=1194)47% (13870–15347, n=29217)
Consensus PnL$677K$5.8M$11.0M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #12was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus76% (231 of 303 open)100% (1 of 1 open)86% (134 of 156 open)58% (11 of 19 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicEntertainment ±0 pts, n=263NBA −6 pts, n=93——
Settled positions, side won48% of 6420 at avg 42¢, ROI +12%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢47% (won 14% of 3014)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 82% of 56)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 46% of 716)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 198)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢12% (won 68% of 785)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 191)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 94% of 1905)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 107)32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketdonthackmebeachboy4BreakTheBankRN1
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $648—No $253K—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1.2K—Yes $31K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $7—Yes $338—
Will Fulham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5—Yes $200—
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $5—Yes $200—