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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| failstober | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 13% (95–631, n=726) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 48% (12851–13947, n=26798) | 45% (535–643, n=1178) |
| Consensus PnL | $295K | $5.8M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 87% (103 of 118 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 63% (5 of 8 open) | 71% (83 of 117 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=526 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 17% of 839 at avg 16¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 74% (won 3% of 617) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 134) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 62) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 3% (won 96% of 26) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | failstober | beachboy4 | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $172 | — | — | Yes $13K |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.0K | Yes $4.1K | — | — |