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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (355–490, n=845) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | $11.0M | $5.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #80 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 52% (49 of 95 open) | 91% (150 of 165 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 843 at avg 38¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 7% of 403) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 38% of 138) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 69% of 125) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 177) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | No $909K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.3K | No $129 | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $2.6K | Yes $29K | — | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | No $25K | — | — |