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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| macrosteaks | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (2934–2372, n=5306) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) |
| Consensus PnL | -$7.9K | -$6.6M | $11.0M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #999 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 49% (51 of 105 open) | no open consensus position | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 56% (27 of 48 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −4 pts, n=348 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 4909 at avg 50¢, ROI −1% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 37% (won 9% of 1820) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 38% of 598) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 60% of 609) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 92% of 1882) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | macrosteaks | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $8.5K | — | Yes $6.8K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $437 | — | Yes $29K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $535 | — | No $25K | — |