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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| macrosteaks | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (2934–2372, n=5306) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 50% (1028–1027, n=2055) |
| Consensus PnL | -$7.9K | $14.8M | $11.0M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #999 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (51 of 103 open) | 58% (26 of 45 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −4 pts, n=348 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 4909 at avg 50¢, ROI −1% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 37% (won 9% of 1820) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 38% of 598) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 60% of 609) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 92% of 1882) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | macrosteaks | RN1 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $8.5K | — | Yes $6.8K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $437 | — | Yes $29K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $535 | — | No $25K | — |