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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| macrosteaks | RN1 | beachboy4 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (2934–2372, n=5306) | 47% (13871–15347, n=29218) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$7.9K | $14.8M | $5.8M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #999 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 49% (51 of 104 open) | 57% (25 of 44 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −4 pts, n=348 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 4909 at avg 50¢, ROI −1% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 37% (won 9% of 1820) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 38% of 598) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 60% of 609) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 92% of 1882) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | macrosteaks | RN1 | beachboy4 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.4K | — | — | No $18 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? same side · consensus No | No $1.0K | — | — | No $142 |