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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| qwen300.fund | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 39% (2614–4022, n=6636) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 47% (13868–15346, n=29214) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $240K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 96% (142 of 148 open) | 90% (147 of 164 open) | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −3 pts, n=1468 | — | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 43% of 2980 at avg 45¢, ROI −1% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 2% of 1695) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 46% of 35) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 70% of 27) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 41% (won 98% of 1223) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | qwen300.fund | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $7 | Yes $22K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3 | Yes $10K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $5.0K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | Yes $5.0K | — | — |