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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| randomWalkingShrimp | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 79% (914–247, n=1161) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 47% (13854–15338, n=29192) |
| Consensus PnL | $39K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (36 of 49 open) | 88% (130 of 148 open) | no open consensus position | 75% (3 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 1028 at avg 72¢, ROI +8% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 19% of 146) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 50% of 72) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 79% of 124) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 67% (won 98% of 686) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | randomWalkingShrimp | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19 | Yes $85K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $701 | Yes $33K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $518 | No $32K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $153 | Yes $30K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $85 | Yes $172K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $299 | No $114K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $94 | Yes $83K | — | — |