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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| randomWalkingShrimp | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 79% (906–247, n=1153) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $39K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 76% (38 of 50 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 1028 at avg 72¢, ROI +8% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 19% of 146) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 7% (won 50% of 72) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 79% of 124) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 67% (won 98% of 686) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | randomWalkingShrimp | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $19 | — | Yes $85K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $691 | — | Yes $36K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $497 | — | No $34K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $151 | — | Yes $30K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $84 | — | Yes $170K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $299 | — | No $112K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $90 | — | Yes $81K | — |