Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: 1st Half O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$873.81

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares16,721

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Under5 traders

Total Value$105.72

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$150.22

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE Next-Licensing	Overavg 99.9¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$7.05	99% 2461-33 (2494)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 99¢	$8.0K	$5.4K	$-2.6K	82% 2534-568 (3102)
└ Over leg	Overavg 99¢	$5.4K	$2.8K	$-2.5K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$69.49
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 70.5¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$23.4	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
SH SharkVision	Overavg 76.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$404.55	71% 1398-584 (1982)
OL olpy	Overavg 99¢	$788.07	$792.05	+$3.98	73% 428-159 (587)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 49.9¢	$307.46	$615.47	+$308.01	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
RO Rocky31	Overavg 25.9¢	$330.16	$298.48	+$323.31	74% 1759-610 (2369)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Underavg 24.2¢	$341.77	$276.77	-$65	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.2¢	$318.59	$210.48	-$108.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.4¢	$23.18	$66.3	+$43.11
DI dips.ARB<$100	Overavg 75¢	$61.68	$108.72	+$47.04	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
└ Under leg	Underavg 13¢	$30.29	$81.52	+$51.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 75¢	$31.39	$27.2	-$4.19
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 36.6¢	$79.12	$46.57	-$32.55	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
LR lryyyCTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$122.1	$22.09	-$100.01	46% 7938-9258 (17196)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 35.2¢	$8.8	$18.52	+$9.72	51% 1005-965 (1970)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 29.6¢	$44.29	$18.49	-$25.8	58% 11442-8290 (19732)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 94¢	$8.08	$8.6	+$0.51	55% 8534-6852 (15386)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$1.62	$0.04	-$1.58	50% 19821-20164 (39985)

Next-Licensing

Over

Invested

$10,009.36

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$7.05

Record

99%

2461-33 (2494)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,001

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

82%

2534-568 (3102)

Both legs:

Over$5,359.8699¢$-2.5K

Under$2,641.1448.8¢-$69.49

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,900.76

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$23.4

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

SharkVision

Over

Invested

$1,427.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$404.55

Record

71%

1398-584 (1982)

olpy

Over

Invested

$788.07

Value

$792.05

PnL

+$3.98

Record

73%

428-159 (587)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$307.46

Value

$615.47

PnL

+$308.01

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$330.16

Value

$298.48

PnL

+$323.31

Record

74%

1759-610 (2369)

cigarettesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$341.77

Value

$276.77

PnL

-$65

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

Both legs:

Under$318.5924.2¢-$108.11

Over$23.1829.4¢+$43.11

dips.ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$61.68

Value

$108.72

PnL

+$47.04

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

Both legs:

Under$30.2913¢+$51.23

Over$31.3975¢-$4.19

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.12

Value

$46.57

PnL

-$32.55

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

lryyyCTR

Under

Invested

$122.1

Value

$22.09

PnL

-$100.01

Record

46%

7938-9258 (17196)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.8

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$9.72

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.29

Value

$18.49

PnL

-$25.8

Record

58%

11442-8290 (19732)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.51

Record

55%

8534-6852 (15386)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.58

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.