Lima: Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Nicolas Jarry

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Jarry (56%) · Nicolas Jarry at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Felipe Meligeni Alves<1¢Nicolas Jarry>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Jarry

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Jarry 56%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

-$225.14

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felipe Meligeni Alves0%

Nicolas Jarry100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Jarry9 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares14,781

Combined PnL+$48.99

Felipe Meligeni Alves7 traders

Total Value$588.28

Total Shares3,688

Combined PnL-$274.13

Nicolas Jarry — 56%Felipe Meligeni Alves — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Felipe Meligeni Alves) and the top 1000 (8 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

whaleFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolas Jarry 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFelipe Meligeni Alves 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nicolas Jarryavg 75¢	$5.8K	$5.5K	-$266.81	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
HV HVAB	Nicolas Jarryavg 98.5¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$53.27	76% 639-207 (846)
NO Notradecopy	Nicolas Jarryavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$71.43	48% 4168-4500 (8668)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Jarryavg 73.5¢	$1.3K	$761.24	+$21.27	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
TH thestingsnake	Nicolas Jarryavg 57.6¢	$265.7	$394.92	+$144.52	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$389.84	-$175.14	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
OJ ojg<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 88.8¢	$88.8	$99.95	+$11.15	51% 3968-3783 (7751)
RN1CTR	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 53¢	$153.77	$89.94	-$63.83	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
machinelearned<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 55.4¢	$74.86	$85.64	+$10.78	54% 10222-8700 (18922)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 70.3¢	$73.02	$76.42	+$3.4	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 47¢	$36.13	$37.75	+$1.62	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 43.7¢	$99.74	$34.41	-$9.2	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 47¢	$28.2	$20.7	-$7.5	49% 3720-3945 (7665)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 48¢	$14.65	$14.66	+$0.01	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Jarryavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.88	-$0.02	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
dips.CTR<$100	Felipe Meligeni Alvesavg 1.1¢	$21.07	$0.98	-$20.09	46% 12092-14003 (26095)

ferrariChampions2026

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$5,759.82

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$266.81

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

HVAB

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3,535.71

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$53.27

Record

76%

639-207 (846)

Notradecopy

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$1,255.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$71.43

Record

48%

4168-4500 (8668)

38791873984189

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$1,304.24

Value

$761.24

PnL

+$21.27

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

thestingsnake

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$265.7

Value

$394.92

PnL

+$144.52

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$1,129.96

Value

$389.84

PnL

-$175.14

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

ojg<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$88.8

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$11.15

Record

51%

3968-3783 (7751)

RN1CTR

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$153.77

Value

$89.94

PnL

-$63.83

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

machinelearned<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$74.86

Value

$85.64

PnL

+$10.78

Record

54%

10222-8700 (18922)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$73.02

Value

$76.42

PnL

+$3.4

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$36.13

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$1.62

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$99.74

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$9.2

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

efntrickCTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$28.2

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$7.5

Record

49%

3720-3945 (7665)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Jarry

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

dips.CTR<$100

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Invested

$21.07

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$20.09

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Jarry at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Jarry

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Nicolas Jarry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Felipe Meligeni Alves) and the top 1000 (8 on Nicolas Jarry) disagree here.

whaleFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolas Jarry 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFelipe Meligeni Alves 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelipe Meligeni Alves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Jarry 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Jarry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.