Knoxville: Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Stefan Kozlov (60%) · Stefan Kozlov at 78¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Alexis Galarneau23¢Stefan Kozlov77¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stefan Kozlov

Consensus Traders

Stefan Kozlov 60%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$20.7

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 77.5¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alexis Galarneau23%

Stefan Kozlov78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stefan Kozlov9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares7,716

Combined PnL+$173.59

Alexis Galarneau6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,837

Combined PnL-$194.29

Stefan Kozlov — 60%Alexis Galarneau — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Stefan Kozlovavg 62¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$190.67	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
RN1CTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$99.08	58% 3770-2728 (6498)
VeryLucky888CTR	Alexis Galarneauavg 44.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$81.09	50% 260-256 (516)
FL Flaznorp	Stefan Kozlovavg 64.4¢	$554.11	$495.55	-$21.56	50% 1432-1432 (2864)
CI cigarettes	Stefan Kozlovavg 63¢	$157.5	$163.75	+$6.25	53% 5455-4894 (10349)
LI Limousin	Stefan Kozlovavg 69¢	$158.7	$162.15	+$3.45	26% 231-671 (902)
VE Venusian	Stefan Kozlovavg 62.1¢	$143.83	$144.88	+$1.05	25% 227-676 (903)
TH thirdt1me	Stefan Kozlovavg 64¢	$212	$131	-$11	41% 90-128 (218)
machinelearned	Stefan Kozlovavg 63.1¢	$119.8	$124.45	+$4.65	37% 378-655 (1033)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 26.8¢	$60.64	$51	-$9.64	26% 232-661 (893)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 27.5¢	$33.83	$30.13	-$3.7	51% 78-75 (153)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 42¢	$27.3	$27.3	-$0	20% 96-383 (479)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Alexis Galarneauavg 44¢	$17.22	$16.43	-$0.78	56% 118-93 (211)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 55¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	25% 176-515 (691)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.18	+$0.13	20% 91-354 (445)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$3,882.37

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$190.67

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

RN1CTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$2,179.76

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$99.08

Record

58%

3770-2728 (6498)

VeryLucky888CTR

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$1,549.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$81.09

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

Flaznorp

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$554.11

Value

$495.55

PnL

-$21.56

Record

50%

1432-1432 (2864)

cigarettes

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$157.5

Value

$163.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

5455-4894 (10349)

Limousin

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$158.7

Value

$162.15

PnL

+$3.45

Record

26%

231-671 (902)

Venusian

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$143.83

Value

$144.88

PnL

+$1.05

Record

25%

227-676 (903)

thirdt1me

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$212

Value

$131

PnL

-$11

Record

41%

90-128 (218)

machinelearned

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$119.8

Value

$124.45

PnL

+$4.65

Record

37%

378-655 (1033)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$60.64

Value

$51

PnL

-$9.64

Record

26%

232-661 (893)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$33.83

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

78-75 (153)

babybellsCTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

96-383 (479)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Alexis Galarneau

Invested

$17.22

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$0.78

Record

56%

118-93 (211)

ameisgoat11<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

176-515 (691)

thestingsnake<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.13

Record

20%

91-354 (445)

Research grade

NeutralStefan Kozlov at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Stefan Kozlov

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stefan Kozlov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.