Hersonissos 3: Felix Gill vs Menelaos Efstathiou

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (67%) · Felix Gill at 89¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Felix Gill89¢Menelaos Efstathiou11¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$907.19

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 88.5¢

+14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill89%

Menelaos Efstathiou12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Gill10 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares9,446

Combined PnL+$923

Menelaos Efstathiou5 traders

Total Value$361.45

Total Shares3,052

Combined PnL-$15.81

Felix Gill — 67%Menelaos Efstathiou — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFelix Gill 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMenelaos Efstathiou 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Felix Gillavg 66¢	$2.8K	$3.6K	+$833.86	58% 3746-2702 (6448)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Felix Gillavg 92¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$33.79	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
TH thestingsnake	Felix Gillavg 83.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$66.89	15% 60-330 (390)
VE Venusian	Felix Gillavg 90.4¢	$652.4	$638.69	-$13.71	24% 205-637 (842)
DA darkumbreon88	Felix Gillavg 82¢	$496.25	$520.46	+$24.21	61% 891-567 (1458)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Felix Gillavg 85.1¢	$520.31	$519.14	-$1.17	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 85.1¢	$309.2	$332.29	+$23.09
└ Menelaos Efstathiou leg	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 9.6¢	$211.11	$186.84	-$24.26
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Felix Gillavg 81.9¢	$212.29	$215.11	+$2.82	56% 3777-2944 (6721)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 9¢	$501.6	$191.43	+$45.83	33% 56-112 (168)
└ Menelaos Efstathiou leg	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 9¢	$144.45	$104.81	-$39.65
└ Felix Gill leg	Felix Gillavg 72.5¢	$67.16	$86.63	+$85.48
VeryLucky888CTR	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 17¢	$244.83	$187.09	-$57.56	48% 214-230 (444)
38 38791873984189CTR	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 10¢	$157.63	$165.09	+$7.46	48% 733-802 (1535)
BA babybells	Felix Gillavg 68.4¢	$111.06	$127.11	+$20.6	15% 64-357 (421)
machinelearned	Felix Gillavg 75¢	$90	$103.2	+$13.2	31% 268-583 (851)
LI LightParadox<$100	Felix Gillavg 70.3¢	$41.82	$51.13	+$9.31	24% 202-632 (834)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Felix Gillavg 91.3¢	$41.1	$40.73	-$0.37	12% 59-452 (511)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 22¢	$8.71	$7.2	-$1.51	25% 203-620 (823)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 18¢	$54.38	$1.61	+$35.77	18% 107-477 (584)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Menelaos Efstathiouavg 7¢	$0.42	$0.45	+$0.03	52% 51-47 (98)

RN1

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,751.73

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$833.86

Record

58%

3746-2702 (6448)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,089.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$33.79

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

thestingsnake

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,124.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$66.89

Record

15%

60-330 (390)

Venusian

Felix Gill

Invested

$652.4

Value

$638.69

PnL

-$13.71

Record

24%

205-637 (842)

darkumbreon88

Felix Gill

Invested

$496.25

Value

$520.46

PnL

+$24.21

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$520.31

Value

$519.14

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

Both legs:

Felix Gill$309.285.1¢+$23.09

Menelaos Efstathiou$211.119.6¢-$24.26

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Felix Gill

Invested

$212.29

Value

$215.11

PnL

+$2.82

Record

56%

3777-2944 (6721)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$501.6

Value

$191.43

PnL

+$45.83

Record

33%

56-112 (168)

Both legs:

Menelaos Efstathiou$144.459¢-$39.65

Felix Gill$67.1672.5¢+$85.48

VeryLucky888CTR

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$244.83

Value

$187.09

PnL

-$57.56

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

38791873984189CTR

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$157.63

Value

$165.09

PnL

+$7.46

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

babybells

Felix Gill

Invested

$111.06

Value

$127.11

PnL

+$20.6

Record

15%

64-357 (421)

machinelearned

Felix Gill

Invested

$90

Value

$103.2

PnL

+$13.2

Record

31%

268-583 (851)

LightParadox<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$41.82

Value

$51.13

PnL

+$9.31

Record

24%

202-632 (834)

BillBenter2026<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$41.1

Value

$40.73

PnL

-$0.37

Record

12%

59-452 (511)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$8.71

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$1.51

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$54.38

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$35.77

Record

18%

107-477 (584)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Menelaos Efstathiou

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

51-47 (98)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Felix Gill. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFelix Gill 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMenelaos Efstathiou 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFelix Gill 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Felix Gill 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.