Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Calvin Hemery, while the market favors Lucas Poullain (69%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Calvin Hemery vs Lucas Poullain

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Calvin Hemery (38%) · Calvin Hemery at 32¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Calvin Hemery32¢Lucas Poullain68¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Calvin Hemery

Consensus Traders

Calvin Hemery 38%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$18.67

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 31.5¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCalvin Hemery at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Calvin Hemery

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Lucas Poullain 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Calvin Hemery32%

Lucas Poullain69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Calvin Hemery5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,558

Combined PnL-$74.61

Lucas Poullain8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,602

Combined PnL+$55.94

Calvin Hemery — 38%Lucas Poullain — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Calvin Hemery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalvin Hemery 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpCalvin Hemery 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCalvin Hemery 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCalvin Hemery 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Calvin Hemery 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 46.2¢	$822.15	$764.59	-$57.57	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
TRCM	Lucas Poullainavg 64.7¢	$346.2	$388.6	+$42.39	55% 4142-3335 (7477)
LI LightParadox	Lucas Poullainavg 55.2¢	$280.97	$267.69	-$1.32	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 50.5¢	$365.63	$265.83	-$99.8	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 70.1¢	$136.36	$140.98	+$4.62
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 50.5¢	$229.27	$124.85	-$104.42
FL Flaznorp	Lucas Poullainavg 69.6¢	$248.82	$259.34	+$10.52	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 54¢	$86.99	$205.18	+$118.18	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 54¢	$83.28	$117.98	+$34.7
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 1¢	$3.71	$87.2	+$83.48
LI LimousinCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 44.5¢	$260.48	$121.13	+$5.15	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 71¢	$94.7	$120.29	+$25.59	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 71¢	$88.04	$88.66	+$0.62
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 6¢	$6.66	$31.63	+$24.98
CI cigarettesCTR	Calvin Hemeryavg 44¢	$250	$116.25	+$6.25	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
TH thestingsnake	Lucas Poullainavg 75.5¢	$104.3	$100.16	-$4.14	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 27.5¢	$156.13	$86.95	+$13.6	58% 237-173 (410)
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 27.5¢	$58.6	$60.79	+$5.37
└ Lucas Poullain leg	Lucas Poullainavg 54.8¢	$20.04	$26.16	+$8.23
tradecraft<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 70¢	$70	$72.5	+$2.5	51% 6933-6586 (13519)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 36.4¢	$70.33	$41.52	-$28.81	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
RN1CTR<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 46¢	$6.87	$35.28	+$0.38	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
machinelearned<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 71¢	$17.2	$22.85	+$5.65	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
VE Venusian<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 79.8¢	$19.22	$18.66	-$0.56	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Lucas Poullainavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$7.25	+$0.9	52% 6205-5726 (11931)

MadridTimeCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$822.15

Value

$764.59

PnL

-$57.57

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

TRCM

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$346.2

Value

$388.6

PnL

+$42.39

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

LightParadox

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$280.97

Value

$267.69

PnL

-$1.32

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$365.63

Value

$265.83

PnL

-$99.8

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$136.3670.1¢+$4.62

Calvin Hemery$229.2750.5¢-$104.42

Flaznorp

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$248.82

Value

$259.34

PnL

+$10.52

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$86.99

Value

$205.18

PnL

+$118.18

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$83.2854¢+$34.7

Calvin Hemery$3.711¢+$83.48

LimousinCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$260.48

Value

$121.13

PnL

+$5.15

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

EulhunterARB<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$94.7

Value

$120.29

PnL

+$25.59

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

Both legs:

Lucas Poullain$88.0471¢+$0.62

Calvin Hemery$6.666¢+$24.98

cigarettesCTR

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$250

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

thestingsnake

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$104.3

Value

$100.16

PnL

-$4.14

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$156.13

Value

$86.95

PnL

+$13.6

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

Both legs:

Calvin Hemery$58.627.5¢+$5.37

Lucas Poullain$20.0454.8¢+$8.23

tradecraft<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$70

Value

$72.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

6933-6586 (13519)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$70.33

Value

$41.52

PnL

-$28.81

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

RN1CTR<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$6.87

Value

$35.28

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

machinelearned<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$17.2

Value

$22.85

PnL

+$5.65

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

Venusian<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$19.22

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$0.56

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Lucas Poullain

Invested

$6.35

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.9

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Research grade

NeutralCalvin Hemery at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Calvin Hemery

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Lucas Poullain 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Calvin Hemery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalvin Hemery 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpCalvin Hemery 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCalvin Hemery 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCalvin Hemery 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Calvin Hemery 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Calvin Hemery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.