Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alexander Shevchenko, while the market favors Adrian Mannarino (55%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Shevchenko (53%) · Alexander Shevchenko at 46¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 17

Adrian Mannarino55¢Alexander Shevchenko45¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexander Shevchenko

Consensus Traders

Alexander Shevchenko 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

-$98.75

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino55%

Alexander Shevchenko46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Mannarino8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,106

Combined PnL+$22.99

Alexander Shevchenko9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares14,195

Combined PnL-$121.74

Adrian Mannarino — 47%Alexander Shevchenko — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Shevchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrian Mannarino 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAlexander Shevchenko 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Shevchenko 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Adrian Mannarinoavg 54¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	54% 1570-1320 (2890)
nigiri99CTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$117.14	51% 105-102 (207)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45.1¢	$3.8K	$2.1K	+$111.69	46% 178-207 (385)
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$73.15
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52¢	$770.04	$807.06	+$38.54
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$32.03	59% 418-285 (703)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$3.43	14% 56-341 (397)
└ Alexander Shevchenko leg	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45.5¢	$981.5	$971.29	-$10.21
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$372.96	$379.74	+$6.78
HI hi774cCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 46¢	$815.77	$798.04	-$17.73	7% 30-408 (438)
NM NM-PCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45.7¢	$807.54	$795.03	-$12.5	60% 3431-2329 (5760)
0xheavy888	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52¢	$520	$539.95	+$19.95	56% 72-57 (129)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45¢	$344.7	$344.7	+$0	50% 1318-1340 (2658)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$245.37	$249.98	+$4.61	1% 1-119 (120)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Adrian Mannarinoavg 55¢	$240.42	$236.18	-$4.24	1% 2-360 (362)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$111.71	$107.12	-$4.59	34% 151-298 (449)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 45¢	$72.98	$72.98	+$0	24% 184-598 (782)
PA Pan9X<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53.3¢	$84.05	$60.65	+$1.26	48% 373-401 (774)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$39.98	$40.73	+$0.75	61% 888-566 (1454)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$39.72	$40.47	+$0.75	1% 5-380 (385)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$37.6	$36	-$1.6	24% 190-616 (806)
TH TheMathGod<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 55¢	$10	$9.91	-$0.09	— 1-3 (4)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alexander Shevchenkoavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.5	-$0.2	23% 185-620 (805)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,203.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1570-1320 (2890)

nigiri99CTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$2,977.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$117.14

Record

51%

105-102 (207)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$3,753.4

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$111.69

Record

46%

178-207 (385)

Both legs:

Alexander Shevchenko$1,328.745.1¢+$73.15

Adrian Mannarino$770.0452¢+$38.54

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$1,409.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$32.03

Record

59%

418-285 (703)

GC-PARB<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$1,354.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$3.43

Record

14%

56-341 (397)

Both legs:

Alexander Shevchenko$981.545.5¢-$10.21

Adrian Mannarino$372.9653¢+$6.78

hi774cCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$815.77

Value

$798.04

PnL

-$17.73

Record

30-408 (438)

NM-PCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$807.54

Value

$795.03

PnL

-$12.5

Record

60%

3431-2329 (5760)

0xheavy888

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$520

Value

$539.95

PnL

+$19.95

Record

56%

72-57 (129)

FlaznorpCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$344.7

Value

$344.7

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1318-1340 (2658)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$245.37

Value

$249.98

PnL

+$4.61

Record

1-119 (120)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$240.42

Value

$236.18

PnL

-$4.24

Record

2-360 (362)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$111.71

Value

$107.12

PnL

-$4.59

Record

34%

151-298 (449)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$72.98

Value

$72.98

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

184-598 (782)

Pan9X<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$84.05

Value

$60.65

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

373-401 (774)

darkumbreon88<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$39.98

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$0.75

Record

61%

888-566 (1454)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$39.72

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$0.75

Record

5-380 (385)

VenusianCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$37.6

Value

$36

PnL

-$1.6

Record

24%

190-616 (806)

TheMathGod<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$10

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

—

1-3 (4)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alexander Shevchenko

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

23%

185-620 (805)

Research grade

NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alexander Shevchenko

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Shevchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAdrian Mannarino 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAlexander Shevchenko 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Alexander Shevchenko 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexander Shevchenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.