Lima: Thiago Monteiro vs Filip Misolic

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (88%) · Filip Misolic at 89¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 17

Thiago Monteiro12¢Filip Misolic88¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$17.59

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 88.5¢

+12% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Monteiro12%

Filip Misolic89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Misolic14 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares11,536

Combined PnL+$498.92

Thiago Monteiro2 traders

Total Value$923.78

Total Shares8,020

Combined PnL-$481.33

Filip Misolic — 88%Thiago Monteiro — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Filip Misolicavg 86.9¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$56.42	25% 214-643 (857)
MA MadridTime	Filip Misolicavg 78.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$193.24	25% 215-633 (848)
VE Venusian	Filip Misolicavg 85¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10.08	25% 213-654 (867)
TH thestingsnake	Filip Misolicavg 77.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$142.43	18% 72-338 (410)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thiago Monteiroavg 17.5¢	$1.4K	$921.47	-$479.51	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
FL Flaznorp	Filip Misolicavg 58.4¢	$441.55	$495.4	+$76.97	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
38 38791873984189	Filip Misolicavg 45.6¢	$139.73	$203.25	+$63.52	48% 859-937 (1796)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Thiago Monteiroavg 23.2¢	$359	$196.22	-$86.79	37% 70-118 (188)
└ Thiago Monteiro leg	Thiago Monteiroavg 23.2¢	$284.69	$140.97	-$114.17
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 44.6¢	$27.87	$55.25	+$27.38
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Thiago Monteiroavg 17¢	$73.08	$100	+$26.92	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
└ Thiago Monteiro leg	Thiago Monteiroavg 17¢	$51.39	$52.9	+$1.51
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 38¢	$21.69	$47.1	+$25.41
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Filip Misolicavg 64.4¢	$86.63	$88.96	+$2.33	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
OM omnibus-076daa	Filip Misolicavg 54.4¢	$105.12	$73.5	-$31.62	37% 191-330 (521)
VeryLucky888<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$58.8	$47.25	-$11.55	49% 231-239 (470)
BA babybells<$100	Filip Misolicavg 43.9¢	$29.29	$30.01	+$0.72	18% 78-366 (444)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$17.36	$13.95	-$3.41	48% 421-450 (871)
machinelearned<$100	Filip Misolicavg 40¢	$9.38	$10.56	+$1.17	35% 335-614 (949)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Thiago Monteiroavg 59¢	$4.13	$2.31	-$1.82	14% 73-461 (534)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.25	-$0.55	24% 157-504 (661)
0xheavy888<$100	Filip Misolicavg 56¢	$2.56	$1.74	-$0.82	55% 106-86 (192)

LightParadox

Filip Misolic

Invested

$3,031.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$56.42

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

MadridTime

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2,301.54

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$193.24

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

Venusian

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,712.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$10.08

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

thestingsnake

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,385.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$142.43

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

6512395314597884CTR

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$1,400.98

Value

$921.47

PnL

-$479.51

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

Flaznorp

Filip Misolic

Invested

$441.55

Value

$495.4

PnL

+$76.97

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

38791873984189

Filip Misolic

Invested

$139.73

Value

$203.25

PnL

+$63.52

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$359

Value

$196.22

PnL

-$86.79

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

Both legs:

Thiago Monteiro$284.6923.2¢-$114.17

Filip Misolic$27.8744.6¢+$27.38

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$73.08

Value

$100

PnL

+$26.92

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

Both legs:

Thiago Monteiro$51.3917¢+$1.51

Filip Misolic$21.6938¢+$25.41

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$86.63

Value

$88.96

PnL

+$2.33

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

omnibus-076daa

Filip Misolic

Invested

$105.12

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$31.62

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

VeryLucky888<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$58.8

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$11.55

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

babybells<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$29.29

Value

$30.01

PnL

+$0.72

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$17.36

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$3.41

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

machinelearned<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$9.38

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$1.17

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Thiago Monteiro

Invested

$4.13

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.82

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.55

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

0xheavy888<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2.56

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.82

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFilip Misolic 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.