BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Musetti (22%) · Lorenzo Musetti at 78¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 17

Lorenzo Musetti78¢Toby Samuel22¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Musetti

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Musetti 22%

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

-$82.95

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Musetti at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Musetti

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Musetti78%

Toby Samuel23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Musetti4 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares41,809

Combined PnL-$346.55

Toby Samuel14 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares30,910

Combined PnL+$263.6

Lorenzo Musetti — 22%Toby Samuel — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Musetti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLorenzo Musetti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrToby Samuel 83% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedToby Samuel 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Toby Samuel 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stuttig	Lorenzo Musettiavg 78.3¢	$32.1K	$31.7K	-$347.32	— 6-0 (6)
VE VenusianCTR	Toby Samuelavg 22¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$41.09	25% 212-653 (865)
VeryLucky888CTR	Toby Samuelavg 21.6¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	+$62.93	49% 231-238 (469)
RN1CTR	Toby Samuelavg 21¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$75	58% 3756-2709 (6465)
DA darkumbreon88	Lorenzo Musettiavg 76.9¢	$655.64	$656.46	+$0.83	61% 894-573 (1467)
HI hi774cCTR	Toby Samuelavg 22¢	$548	$560.45	+$12.45	8% 37-420 (457)
GC GC-PCTR	Toby Samuelavg 21.5¢	$465.67	$486.31	+$20.64	16% 66-347 (413)
NM NM-PCTR	Toby Samuelavg 21.5¢	$465.46	$486.1	+$20.64	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Toby Samuelavg 22¢	$420	$429.55	+$9.55	60% 629-411 (1040)
LI LimousinCTR	Toby Samuelavg 23¢	$268.71	$257.03	-$11.68	25% 212-653 (865)
0xheavy888CTR	Toby Samuelavg 21¢	$166.35	$176.53	+$10.18	55% 106-85 (191)
38 38791873984189CTR	Toby Samuelavg 21.4¢	$117.5	$123.75	+$6.25	48% 840-912 (1752)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 17¢	$46.91	$60.71	+$13.8	44% 79-102 (181)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 18.7¢	$11.42	$13.73	+$2.3	48% 420-450 (870)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 21¢	$8.4	$9	+$0.6	52% 61-57 (118)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.85	+$0.05	24% 155-504 (659)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 79¢	$3.94	$3.84	-$0.1	37% 189-328 (517)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 23¢	$3.6	$3.44	-$0.16	25% 214-632 (846)

stuttig

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$32,080.75

Value

$31.7K

PnL

-$347.32

Record

—

6-0 (6)

VenusianCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,986.26

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$41.09

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

VeryLucky888CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,617.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.93

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

RN1CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$75

Record

58%

3756-2709 (6465)

darkumbreon88

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$655.64

Value

$656.46

PnL

+$0.83

Record

61%

894-573 (1467)

hi774cCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$548

Value

$560.45

PnL

+$12.45

Record

37-420 (457)

GC-PCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$465.67

Value

$486.31

PnL

+$20.64

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

NM-PCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$465.46

Value

$486.1

PnL

+$20.64

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

lonmi2511CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$420

Value

$429.55

PnL

+$9.55

Record

60%

629-411 (1040)

LimousinCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$268.71

Value

$257.03

PnL

-$11.68

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

0xheavy888CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$166.35

Value

$176.53

PnL

+$10.18

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

38791873984189CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$117.5

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$6.25

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$46.91

Value

$60.71

PnL

+$13.8

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$11.42

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$2.3

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$8.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

24%

155-504 (659)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

189-328 (517)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$0.16

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Musetti at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Musetti

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Musetti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLorenzo Musetti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrToby Samuel 83% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedToby Samuel 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Toby Samuel 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Musetti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.