Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mika Petkovic, while the market favors Gianluca Cadenasso (63%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Monastir: Mika Petkovic vs Gianluca Cadenasso

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Mika Petkovic (50%) · Mika Petkovic at 38¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Mika Petkovic38¢Gianluca Cadenasso62¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mika Petkovic

Consensus Traders

Mika Petkovic 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$36.54

Smart Money Entry

38.2¢ → 37.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMika Petkovic at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mika Petkovic

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Gianluca Cadenasso 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mika Petkovic38%

Gianluca Cadenasso63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gianluca Cadenasso7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,887

Combined PnL+$149.32

Mika Petkovic7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,927

Combined PnL-$112.77

Gianluca Cadenasso — 50%Mika Petkovic — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 60.1¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	+$151.4	37% 70-118 (188)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 40.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$133.07	25% 215-633 (848)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 64.4¢	$565.32	$549.55	-$15.77	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
└ Gianluca Cadenasso leg	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 64.4¢	$348	$359.18	+$11.19
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 38.2¢	$217.32	$190.37	-$26.95
LI LimousinCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 33.3¢	$505.16	$507.98	+$2.82	25% 213-654 (867)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 66.1¢	$373.05	$399.19	+$26.14	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Gianluca Cadenasso leg	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 66.1¢	$289.21	$273.43	-$15.78
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 25¢	$83.84	$125.76	+$41.92
VE VenusianCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 36¢	$238.28	$248.29	+$10.01	25% 213-654 (867)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mika Petkovicavg 36¢	$166.45	$173.48	+$7.03	25% 214-643 (857)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 67.6¢	$151.38	$148.05	-$3.33	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Gianluca Cadenasso leg	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 67.6¢	$97.86	$96.29	-$1.58
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 34.6¢	$53.51	$51.76	-$1.75
BA babybellsARB<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 65.4¢	$173.46	$107.18	-$0.58	18% 78-366 (444)
└ Gianluca Cadenasso leg	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 65.4¢	$64.53	$66.56	+$0.45
└ Mika Petkovic leg	Mika Petkovicavg 33.2¢	$41.5	$40.63	-$1.03
0xheavy888<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 62¢	$71.95	$71.95	-$0	55% 106-86 (192)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 68¢	$47.6	$47.25	-$0.35	63% 152-88 (240)
PA Pan9X<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 61¢	$23.18	$23.56	+$0.38	48% 421-450 (871)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Mika Petkovicavg 36¢	$18	$18.25	+$0.25	35% 335-614 (949)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 74.2¢	$12.61	$11.48	-$1.13	14% 73-461 (534)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 65¢	$16.27	$10.44	-$1.03	18% 72-338 (410)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mika Petkovicavg 35¢	$5.38	$5.46	+$0.08	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
RN1CTR<$100	Mika Petkovicavg 37¢	$4.05	$4.16	+$0.11	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Gianluca Cadenassoavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.1	+$0.05	24% 157-504 (661)

thirdt1me

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$2,585.09

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$151.4

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

MadridTimeCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$1,711.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$133.07

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$565.32

Value

$549.55

PnL

-$15.77

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

Both legs:

Gianluca Cadenasso$34864.4¢+$11.19

Mika Petkovic$217.3238.2¢-$26.95

LimousinCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$505.16

Value

$507.98

PnL

+$2.82

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$373.05

Value

$399.19

PnL

+$26.14

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Gianluca Cadenasso$289.2166.1¢-$15.78

Mika Petkovic$83.8425¢+$41.92

VenusianCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$238.28

Value

$248.29

PnL

+$10.01

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

LightParadoxCTR

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$166.45

Value

$173.48

PnL

+$7.03

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$151.38

Value

$148.05

PnL

-$3.33

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Gianluca Cadenasso$97.8667.6¢-$1.58

Mika Petkovic$53.5134.6¢-$1.75

babybellsARB<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$173.46

Value

$107.18

PnL

-$0.58

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

Both legs:

Gianluca Cadenasso$64.5365.4¢+$0.45

Mika Petkovic$41.533.2¢-$1.03

0xheavy888<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$71.95

Value

$71.95

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

suitcase6628<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$47.6

Value

$47.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

63%

152-88 (240)

Pan9X<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$23.18

Value

$23.56

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$18

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

BillBenter2026<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$12.61

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$1.13

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

thestingsnake<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$16.27

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$1.03

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

RN1CTR<$100

Mika Petkovic

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

ameisgoat11<$100

Gianluca Cadenasso

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Research grade

NeutralMika Petkovic at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mika Petkovic

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Gianluca Cadenasso 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mika Petkovic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.