Lima: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Tomas Barrios

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Barrios (82%) · Tomas Barrios at 56¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Juan Pablo Varillas44¢Tomas Barrios56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Barrios

Consensus Traders

Tomas Barrios 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$853.03

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 56.5¢

-10% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Barrios at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Barrios

14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Pablo Varillas44%

Tomas Barrios56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Barrios14 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares11,571

Combined PnL+$874.86

Juan Pablo Varillas3 traders

Total Value$128.87

Total Shares419

Combined PnL-$21.83

Tomas Barrios — 82%Juan Pablo Varillas — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Barrios. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTomas Barrios 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTomas Barrios 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomas Barrios 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Tomas Barrios 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Tomas Barriosavg 55¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$638.65	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
GL glennyorkshire	Tomas Barriosavg 64.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$36.91	46% 33-39 (72)
LI LightParadox	Tomas Barriosavg 77.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.01	26% 234-663 (897)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 63.4¢	$847.36	$839.55	-$7.81	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
└ Tomas Barrios leg	Tomas Barriosavg 63.4¢	$512.75	$513.77	+$1.02
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 37.5¢	$334.61	$325.77	-$8.84
LI Limousin	Tomas Barriosavg 74.7¢	$382.76	$384.39	+$1.63	26% 234-672 (906)
TH thirdt1me	Tomas Barriosavg 65.4¢	$406.81	$318.75	+$69.95	41% 91-130 (221)
38 38791873984189	Tomas Barriosavg 66¢	$208.58	$233.86	+$25.28	48% 939-1010 (1949)
0xheavy888	Tomas Barriosavg 62¢	$141.86	$169.31	+$27.46	56% 119-94 (213)
MA MadridTime	Tomas Barriosavg 52¢	$105.73	$142.3	+$36.57	26% 234-653 (887)
BA babybells	Tomas Barriosavg 66.3¢	$98.59	$115.19	+$16.61	20% 98-385 (483)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 33.9¢	$123.8	$105.85	-$17.95	1% 3-200 (203)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 69.9¢	$87.9	$95.01	+$7.11	50% 79-78 (157)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 71.6¢	$93.84	$75	-$12.45	25% 228-679 (907)
└ Tomas Barrios leg	Tomas Barriosavg 71.6¢	$61.32	$49.23	-$12.09
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 38.5¢	$23.33	$25.77	-$0.36
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 79¢	$51.52	$46.3	-$5.22	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
SE sentrio<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 66¢	$28.86	$32.36	+$3.5	32% 184-398 (582)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 74.5¢	$24.59	$24.92	+$0.32	17% 99-473 (572)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 36.3¢	$48.61	$22.36	-$4.19	49% 440-464 (904)
tradecraft<$100	Tomas Barriosavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.93	+$0.08	17% 124-586 (710)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 33¢	$3.6	$0.65	+$0.31	21% 127-489 (616)

RN1

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$3,162.85

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$638.65

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

glennyorkshire

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$1,947.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$36.91

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

LightParadox

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$1,209.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.01

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$847.36

Value

$839.55

PnL

-$7.81

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

Both legs:

Tomas Barrios$512.7563.4¢+$1.02

Juan Pablo Varillas$334.6137.5¢-$8.84

Limousin

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$382.76

Value

$384.39

PnL

+$1.63

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

thirdt1me

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$406.81

Value

$318.75

PnL

+$69.95

Record

41%

91-130 (221)

38791873984189

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$208.58

Value

$233.86

PnL

+$25.28

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

0xheavy888

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$141.86

Value

$169.31

PnL

+$27.46

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

MadridTime

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$105.73

Value

$142.3

PnL

+$36.57

Record

26%

234-653 (887)

babybells

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$98.59

Value

$115.19

PnL

+$16.61

Record

20%

98-385 (483)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$123.8

Value

$105.85

PnL

-$17.95

Record

3-200 (203)

Eulhunter<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$87.9

Value

$95.01

PnL

+$7.11

Record

50%

79-78 (157)

VenusianARB<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$93.84

Value

$75

PnL

-$12.45

Record

25%

228-679 (907)

Both legs:

Tomas Barrios$61.3271.6¢-$12.09

Juan Pablo Varillas$23.3338.5¢-$0.36

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$51.52

Value

$46.3

PnL

-$5.22

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

sentrio<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$28.86

Value

$32.36

PnL

+$3.5

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$24.59

Value

$24.92

PnL

+$0.32

Record

17%

99-473 (572)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$48.61

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$4.19

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

tradecraft<$100

Tomas Barrios

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

17%

124-586 (710)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.31

Record

21%

127-489 (616)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Barrios at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Barrios

14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Barrios. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTomas Barrios 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTomas Barrios 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomas Barrios 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Tomas Barrios 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Barrios wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.