Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-08?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 89¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 88.5¢

+18% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares19,011

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.69

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.05

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.7¢	$6.3K	$6.4K	+$121.92	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70.9¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$630.43	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$196.12	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
VE Venusian	Noavg 87.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.93	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 62¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$74.3	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 68¢	$635.2	$639.56	+$4.36	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 67¢	$535.68	$563.67	+$27.98	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
NM NM-P	Noavg 67.8¢	$488.25	$493.52	+$5.22	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
RN1	Noavg 72.1¢	$259.3	$318.09	+$58.8	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 85.6¢	$218.96	$226.25	+$7.29	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$36.79	$37.29	+$0.49	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 85¢	$21.46	$22.35	+$0.88	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$17.3	$21.56	+$4.26	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 86¢	$16.34	$16.82	+$0.48	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
dips.<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$8.85	+$1.25	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.65	$2.69	+$0.05	46% 30568-35672 (66240)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,293.91

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$121.92

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,561.47

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$630.43

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,041.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$196.12

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Venusian

Invested

$1,179.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.93

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,023.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$74.3

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

GC-P

Invested

$635.2

Value

$639.56

PnL

+$4.36

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

cigarettes

Invested

$535.68

Value

$563.67

PnL

+$27.98

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

NM-P

Invested

$488.25

Value

$493.52

PnL

+$5.22

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

RN1

Invested

$259.3

Value

$318.09

PnL

+$58.8

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

LightParadox

Invested

$218.96

Value

$226.25

PnL

+$7.29

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$36.79

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$21.46

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.88

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$21.56

PnL

+$4.26

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$16.34

Value

$16.82

PnL

+$0.48

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

dips.<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$1.25

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.