Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-11-08?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 90¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 8

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

-$160.17

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 89.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares20,005

Combined PnL+$150.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares20,933

Combined PnL-$310.27

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.5¢	$137.58	$5.2K	+$143.27	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI Limousin	Noavg 88¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$69.52	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
RN1	Noavg 90¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$15.1	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 88¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$45	67% 3152-1549 (4701)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$304.16	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$4.75	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ No leg	Noavg 87.5¢	$968.3	$962.76	-$5.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.5¢	$257.1	$267.38	+$10.28
GC GC-P	Noavg 87¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.17	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87¢	$992.29	$1.0K	+$20.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 89.6¢	$941.85	$941.09	-$0.76	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 89.4¢	$394.71	$394.34	-$0.37	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 87.5¢	$85.75	$87.71	+$1.96	41% 3599-5103 (8702)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$66.06	$60.31	-$5.74	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 86¢	$48.69	$51.51	+$1.85	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 86¢	$37.41	$38.06	+$0.65	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 90¢	$23.54	$23.27	-$0.27	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$17.07	$16.7	-$0.36	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$11.67	$11.36	-$0.31	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.9	$4.93	+$0.03	53% 18728-16772 (35500)

Flaznorp

Invested

$137.58

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$143.27

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Limousin

Invested

$4,778.85

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$69.52

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

RN1

Invested

$2,787.07

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$15.1

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,640

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$45

Record

67%

3152-1549 (4701)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,425.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$304.16

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,225.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$4.75

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

No$968.387.5¢-$5.53

Yes$257.112.5¢+$10.28

GC-P

Invested

$1,171.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.17

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$992.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$941.85

Value

$941.09

PnL

-$0.76

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

38791873984189

Invested

$394.71

Value

$394.34

PnL

-$0.37

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$85.75

Value

$87.71

PnL

+$1.96

Record

41%

3599-5103 (8702)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.06

Value

$60.31

PnL

-$5.74

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$48.69

Value

$51.51

PnL

+$1.85

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$37.41

Value

$38.06

PnL

+$0.65

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$23.54

Value

$23.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.07

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$0.36

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

18728-16772 (35500)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.