Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Gators (69%) · Florida Gators at 75¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 10

Florida Gators75¢Florida State Seminoles25¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida Gators

Consensus Traders

Florida Gators 69%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$120.14

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 74.5¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Gators75%

Florida State Seminoles26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Gators9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,425

Combined PnL+$22.24

Florida State Seminoles4 traders

Total Value$330.58

Total Shares1,197

Combined PnL+$97.9

Florida Gators — 69%Florida State Seminoles — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida Gators 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 80¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	+$1.86	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 80¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$444.48
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 19¢	$892.67	$1.3K	+$446.33
nigiri99ARB<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 20¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$61.53	52% 126-118 (244)
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 20¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$82.08
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 81¢	$665.82	$645.27	-$20.55
RN1	Florida Gatorsavg 78¢	$513.33	$523.51	+$10.18	58% 3770-2728 (6498)
VeryLucky888	Florida Gatorsavg 80.3¢	$600.96	$503.09	+$3.12	50% 260-256 (516)
SN SnakeBall	Florida Gatorsavg 80¢	$421.67	$425.9	+$4.23	47% 149-168 (317)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 79.4¢	$473.4	$358.48	+$26.71	48% 937-1010 (1947)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 79.4¢	$262.79	$236.67	-$24.78
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 19.7¢	$84.22	$121.81	+$51.49
XT xtxpleasecallme	Florida Gatorsavg 80¢	$330.4	$332.47	+$2.07	41% 3063-4447 (7510)
OJ ojgCTR	Florida State Seminolesavg 19¢	$158.04	$237.35	+$79.32	40% 103-152 (255)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 81.9¢	$105.91	$104.83	-$1.08	50% 1432-1432 (2864)
└ Florida Gators leg	Florida Gatorsavg 81.9¢	$76.34	$74.11	-$2.23
└ Florida State Seminoles leg	Florida State Seminolesavg 19.7¢	$29.57	$30.72	+$1.15
alpheclabs2<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 65¢	$91.01	$98.01	+$7	45% 82-102 (184)
tradecraft<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 81¢	$84.41	$74.51	-$9.9	18% 124-583 (707)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 21¢	$48.91	$66.38	+$17.47	26% 231-671 (902)
PA Pan9X<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 77.2¢	$96.64	$61.75	+$4.04	49% 438-463 (901)
CI cigarettes<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 67¢	$33.5	$35	+$1.5	53% 5455-4894 (10349)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 19¢	$17.33	$18.25	+$0.91	8% 37-421 (458)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Florida State Seminolesavg 21¢	$8.4	$8.6	+$0.2	26% 232-661 (893)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Florida Gatorsavg 80¢	$4	$4	+$0	25% 176-515 (691)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$5,164.55

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.86

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$4,192.6480¢-$444.48

Florida State Seminoles$892.6719¢+$446.33

nigiri99ARB<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$1,791.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$61.53

Record

52%

126-118 (244)

Both legs:

Florida State Seminoles$1,106.9620¢+$82.08

Florida Gators$665.8281¢-$20.55

RN1

Florida Gators

Invested

$513.33

Value

$523.51

PnL

+$10.18

Record

58%

3770-2728 (6498)

VeryLucky888

Florida Gators

Invested

$600.96

Value

$503.09

PnL

+$3.12

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

SnakeBall

Florida Gators

Invested

$421.67

Value

$425.9

PnL

+$4.23

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$473.4

Value

$358.48

PnL

+$26.71

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$262.7979.4¢-$24.78

Florida State Seminoles$84.2219.7¢+$51.49

xtxpleasecallme

Florida Gators

Invested

$330.4

Value

$332.47

PnL

+$2.07

Record

41%

3063-4447 (7510)

ojgCTR

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$158.04

Value

$237.35

PnL

+$79.32

Record

40%

103-152 (255)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$105.91

Value

$104.83

PnL

-$1.08

Record

50%

1432-1432 (2864)

Both legs:

Florida Gators$76.3481.9¢-$2.23

Florida State Seminoles$29.5719.7¢+$1.15

alpheclabs2<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$91.01

Value

$98.01

PnL

+$7

Record

45%

82-102 (184)

tradecraft<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$84.41

Value

$74.51

PnL

-$9.9

Record

18%

124-583 (707)

LimousinCTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$48.91

Value

$66.38

PnL

+$17.47

Record

26%

231-671 (902)

Pan9X<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$96.64

Value

$61.75

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

438-463 (901)

cigarettes<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

$33.5

Value

$35

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

5455-4894 (10349)

hi774cCTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$17.33

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.91

Record

37-421 (458)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Florida State Seminoles

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

26%

232-661 (893)

ameisgoat11<$100

Florida Gators

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

176-515 (691)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida Gators at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Gators

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida Gators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlorida State Seminoles 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFlorida Gators 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Gators 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Gators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.