Will CP Mijas-Las Lagunas win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$19.26

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 89.5¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$730.93

Total Shares820

Combined PnL+$81.97

Yes5 traders

Total Value$93.64

Total Shares722

Combined PnL-$62.71

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$138.67	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$819.7	$940.28	+$120.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.6¢	$521.73	$265.6	-$259.26
LI Limousin	Noavg 78.5¢	$155.34	$177.06	+$21.72	25% 219-662 (881)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 76¢	$136.8	$158.4	+$21.6	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
RN1	Noavg 76¢	$128.92	$149.28	+$20.36	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 78.3¢	$131.56	$147.91	+$16.35	25% 220-643 (863)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$44.75	+$2.25	20% 29-116 (145)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$77.59	$42.61	-$31.68	50% 240-242 (482)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 77¢	$28.86	$25.54	+$3.09	25% 219-662 (881)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$27.45	$23.61	-$3.85	31% 171-389 (560)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$39.57	$22.23	-$17.34	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$23.27	$16.1	-$7.17	25% 221-650 (871)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$11.72	$6.69	-$5.02	44% 79-102 (181)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.5	$6	-$1.5	36% 354-629 (983)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.94	$4.39	+$0.45	37% 200-336 (536)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,348.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$138.67

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Both legs:

No$819.778¢+$120.59

Yes$521.7320.6¢-$259.26

Limousin

Invested

$155.34

Value

$177.06

PnL

+$21.72

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

cigarettes

Invested

$136.8

Value

$158.4

PnL

+$21.6

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

RN1

Invested

$128.92

Value

$149.28

PnL

+$20.36

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

MadridTime

Invested

$131.56

Value

$147.91

PnL

+$16.35

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$44.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

20%

29-116 (145)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.59

Value

$42.61

PnL

-$31.68

Record

50%

240-242 (482)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$28.86

Value

$25.54

PnL

+$3.09

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$23.61

PnL

-$3.85

Record

31%

171-389 (560)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.57

Value

$22.23

PnL

-$17.34

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.27

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$7.17

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.72

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$5.02

Record

44%

79-102 (181)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$0.45

Record

37%

200-336 (536)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.